With Michael Cuddyer‘s sudden and shocking retirement this weekend, the Mets 2016 payroll is right around where it was at the beginning of the offseason. With two holes filled essentially for free, many Mets fans are now calling for Sandy Alderson to sign Yoenis Cespedes to play center field.
As exciting as it would be to blow the rest of the offseason budget on Cespedes instead of three or four players, it would be an impulsive decision that would not help the team as much as other “non-flashy” moves would.
The Mets clearly have a set budget this year, and when a team has a set budget, its objective should be to get the most production per dollar as possible. Bringing back Yoenis Cespedes will not do that.
Cespedes had a season for the ages this year. With just a few swings, it appeared as though he turned around the struggling Mets all by himself. But he wouldn’t be the first 25 home run hitter to have a great season and then return to his normal levels of production, and he certainly won’t be the last.
In all the excitement surrounding the prospect of re-signing him, people have ignored what he did in 2013 and 2014.
In 2013, Cespedes hit .240/.290/.442, owning a 102 wRC+. He also hit 26 home runs. The home run number looks pretty good, but he was basically a league average hitter. Daniel Murphy, who had a 107 wRC+, put together a better season at the plate than Cespedes.
In 2014, Cespedes hit .260/.301/.450 with 22 home runs. That amounted to a slightly-better 109 wRC+, but that’s hardly a difference-making batting line, especially when you consider the fact that he plays a premium offensive position. In 2014, Daniel Murphy once again bested Cespedes with a 110 wRC+.
Now, let’s look at his defense. Cespedes often plays Gold Glove caliber defense in left field, but with Michael Conforto there for the foreseeable future, Cespedes will be forced to play center field.
In left field, Cespedes has a career 32 Defensive Runs saved and 32.3 UZR. That measures out to a 13.9 UZR/150 over his career. That’s outstanding.
However, center field is an entirely different story. There, Cespedes, in about a season’s worth of work, has -17 Defensive Runs Saved and a -17.6 UZR/150, both of which are horrendous. Only one center fielder– Angel Pagan — was worse than that defensively this past season.
Moving Cespedes from left to center could be a thirty run swing (3.0 WAR) in his production. How can you ignore this? Don’t forget to take into account the fact that he is likely to heavily regress on offense next season. Steamer projects a .266/.312/.473 (111 wRC+) line next season. Baseball-Reference projects a .265/.309/.480 line. Neither project him hitting 30 home runs again.
Is there a chance he permanently becomes something close to what we saw this year? Sure, that could happen. Anything can happen in baseball. But you don’t invest $120 million based on a chance. You base it on certainty, which Cespedes doesn’t bring.
Bringing in Denard Span, a bench bat, a few quality relievers, and perhaps a fifth starter is not as flashy or as exciting as bringing in Yoenis Cespedes, but it does more for the team. Span will easily bring you 2.5 to 3.0 fWAR for roughly half the yearly cost of Cespedes, and probably a quarter of his total commitment. A few relievers could easily bring you way past what Cespedes will. This scenario also leaves flexibility to address multiple needs, rather than just one. Signing Cespedes will likely mean inadequate solutions on the bench and in the bullpen.
If it’s power you’re looking for, think of it this way: the Mets are likely to approach or exceed 15 home runs from seven out of eight positions next season. The lineup looks like it will already be deep and balanced.
The obsession with bringing in a star or a big name is a great thing for a fanbase to have. It constantly holds the front office accountable. However, it doesn’t always push for the more sensible moves.
I’d much rather take a chance on other pieces that are likely to bring more production than count on Cespedes to suddenly become a fundamentally different player.
